Draft of climate pact waters down ‘phase out’ of fossil fuel, seeks “rapid” decline in coal use

Observers of COP negotiations say that were even a reference to the need to do away with fossil fuels to prevail in the final text – expected late 12th December — it would be a significant step ahead bringing in parity between coal, oil and gas and the need to do away with them to have a chance at keeping temperatures below 1.5C by the end of the century.

After a week of expectations that negotiators at the ongoing climate talks in Dubai might agree to a ‘phase out’ of fossil fuel, the phrase has been edited out, according to the latest draft made public late evening. However there’s stronger language against coal with a recommendation to “rapidly phase down unabated coal,” that countries such as India, Indonesia and China – major consumers of coal power and developing countries at that – could find objectionable.

Observers of COP negotiations say that were even a reference to the need to do away with fossil fuels to prevail in the final text – expected late 12^th December — it would be a significant step ahead bringing in parity between coal, oil and gas and the need to do away with them to have a chance at keeping temperature-increase below 1.5C by the end of the century.

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‘Unabated coal,’ refers to burning coal without having in place approaches such as carbon capture and storage, that prevents carbon dioxide produced in thermal plants from escaping into the atmosphere.

On fossil fuels, the text now exhorts countries to “…be reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science.” Net zero refers to no net carbon emissions.

Fossil fuel burning contributes nearly 80% of greenhouse gas emissions of which coal makes up about 40% and oil and gas collectively the rest. Humanity’s best chance at keeping global temperature-increase below 1.5C is by cutting emissions 43% of 2019 levels by 2030. The reality is that emissions are increasing year on year and despite promises and pledges by countries to spruce up their renewable energy infrastructure, there is little global effort to cut fossil fuel use. While it is common knowledge that fossil fuels are a major contributor to annual emissions, none of the 28 COPs so far has actually resolved to abate fossil fuel use. COP-26 in Glasgow was the first to mention a ‘phase-down’ of the use of coal – and this too has been met with considerable resistance –though in the absence of numbers and targets, this doesn’t translate into a meaningful deadline.

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Vague language

“The latest Global Stocktake text on fossil fuels represents a significant regression from previous versions. Astonishingly, it has dropped explicit language on phasing out fossil fuels, opting instead for a vague commitment to ‘reduce both consumption and production’ by 2050. This is a clear indication of the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying power, influencing global policies to favour prolonged fossil fuel use,” said Harjeet Singh, Head – Global Political Strategy, Climate Action Network International.

The text retains a call to triple installed renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 but no longer asks that it be done by “displacing fossil fuel energy.”

Others say that venue of the conference, in a petro-state, has influenced the wording of the text. “On fossil fuels this text lays the ground for change. It’s good to recognise this is the first COP where the word fossil fuels are actually included in the draft decision. This is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. It appears to be a compromise between Saudi Arabia who didn’t want any mention of fossils and the progressive countries who called for an outright fossil fuel phase out. It’s in the middle and uses creative language to describe the direction of travel,” said Mohamed Adow, Director Powershift Africa.

On elements of the text that deal with adaptation, or the Global Goal on Adaptation by which countries must implement steps to shore up defences again climate change, experts said the text was “fairly balanced and progressive. “While there is good coverage of adaptation and means of implementation, there is no specific reference to historical responsibility or the carbon budget nor equitable burden sharing (of the costs of adaption that runs into trillions of dollars),” said Dr Anand Patwardhan, who teaches and researches climate policy at the University of Maryland.

 

NOTE – This article was originally published in thehindu and can be viewed here

 

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