Climate projects that changed the way we understand extreme

When a handful of scientists tried to publish a rapid study on the role of climate change in the record rainfall that hit Britain in 2015, they were told that their fast approach was “not science.” ..

Fast forward to 2021.

The extreme heat burned North America, so the same scientists in the World Meteorological Organization (WWA) group concluded that record-breaking temperatures would have been “practically impossible” without artificial ones. Climate change..

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People paid attention this time.

The findings have become a hot topic around the world, and news articles have replaced vague references to the effects of global warming. Abnormal weather With exact details.

And that was exactly the idea of WWA, a network of scientists who wanted to change their understanding of how climate change affects the real world.

“I wanted to change the conversation, but I didn’t expect it to be so successful,” said Dutch scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and climatologist Friederike Otto, who invented WWA in 2014.

In September, Otto and Van Oldenburg, who worked at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), were one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people in 2021.

Their job is “meaning that people reading about our accelerating series of disasters get more and more of the most important information of all. It comes from us.” Said Mr. Time.

The team found that climate change caused more heavy rains and more likely floods in Western Europe in July.

Van Oldenburg responded with a characteristic humility before he died of cancer last week.

“We never aimed to be influential. It just gives a scientifically defensive answer to the question of how climate change affects extreme weather events,” he said. I tweeted.

According to Otto, Van Oldenborg, who should have been 60 on Friday, is a “very powerful moral compass” for doing science for society, especially for those most vulnerable to climate change. It is said that he had

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Otto, lead author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said:

“But I don’t think many people are aware of this because he was so laid back and his ego wasn’t inflated.”

Frustration

For the first time, WWA’s innovative approach allows scientists to specifically correlate individual meteorological events with anthropogenic warming.

The beginning of extreme weather attribution can be traced back to 2004, when there was a study in a British journal. Nature It turns out that the European heatwave punishment of the previous year was most likely caused by climate change.

In 2018, WWA discovered that the Cape Town water crisis was three times more likely due to global heating. — In 2018, WWA discovered that the Cape Town water crisis was three times more likely to occur due to global heating.

However, it was often months after the event that this type of study passed peer review for publication.

So when faced Extremely high temperature Waves, fierce storms, scientists and the media hesitated to blame it, especially with artificial heating.

It was “very frustrating,” Otto said.

In one of their early studies, the WWA team examined UK record rainfall from Storm Desmond in 2015 and found that climate change exacerbated the risk of flooding.

However, subsequent papers submitted to scientific journals were rejected.

“There were a lot of people in the scientific community saying,’This is too fast. This is not science,’” she said.

A few years later, they were able to review the study and publish it with the same number.

Off scale

To investigate whether climate change affects events, WWA has conducted today’s weather after a global warming of about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the mid-1800s and its unheated simulated climate. Compare.

Rain from Storm Desmond in 2015 flooded thousands of homes in northern England.

We also work with local experts to assess on-site exposures and vulnerabilities and decisions, including evacuation orders.

The Red Cross was an early partner and was also funded by Climate Central, a US-based scientific organization.

WWA is currently announcing peer-reviewed methods, demonstrating that rapid attribution can be an “operational activity.” Robert Vautard, lead author of the IPCC and director of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute in France, said.

“I don’t publish a paper every time I make a weather forecast,” he told AFP.

However, he added that temperatures were “off-scale” when heat waves broke out in western Canada and the northwestern United States in June.

The village of Lytton, Canada, was almost completely destroyed by a fire after recording a national temperature record of 49.6 ° C.

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WWA is today climate, It was a once-in-a-millennium event.

There are protracted questions, such as whether some new effects have made heat waves so extreme.

Intense heat and drought caused dozens of wildfires — The intense heat and drought caused dozens of wildfires.

“If necessary, cross the turning point,” said Sarah Kew, who oversaw the study with KNMI scientist Sjoukje Philip.

At the time, van Oldenborgh said the heat wave was “no one thought it was impossible.”

He continued to work from the hospital bed, Kew said. He wanted to convey his knowledge.

WWA scientists claim they will continue to work as extreme events accelerate.

“Everyone knows that we have a big gap now,” Philip said.

“But everyone is also trying to fill this gap together.”

Dutch climate scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh dies at age 59

Quote: The Climate Project (October 22, 2021), which changed the way of understanding extreme weather, started October 22, 2021 from https://phys.org/news/2021-10-climate-extreme-weather.html. I got it.

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Climate projects that changed the way we understand extreme weather

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