The vast Indo-Gangetic plains appear to be on the precipice of profound ecological transformation, as a new study from the Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research has warned that climate change is likely to trigger significant changes in rainfall patterns across this region.
This fertile plain, named after the Indus and Ganges rivers, stretches over 700,000 square kilometres and covers large sections of northwestern and eastern India, eastern Pakistan, Bangladesh and southern Nepal. It is one of the most intensely farmed areas of the world, and yet it is also home to several major cities like Delhi, Kolkata, Lucknow, Dhaka, Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi.
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The Centre, operating under the Department of Science and Technology, undertook a comprehensive analysis of expected rainfall behaviour across this region. The findings paint a troubling picture: during 2041-60, mean monsoon rainfall in June and July could plunge by 40-70% compared to the 1986-2005 average.
Projections also reveal stark changes in pre- and post-monsoon rainfall. The March to May pre-monsoon season is likely to experience a 10-20% reduction in rainfall. In contrast, the post-monsoon season from October to December could see a startling increase, with an 80-170% spike anticipated by 2080-99.
Furthermore, the changing climate is expected to significantly alter the intensity of rainfall as well. Moderate (15.6 mm-64.4 mm) and heavy (64.5 mm-115.5 mm) rainfall events might decline, while higher rainfall categories, including very heavy (115.5 mm-204 mm) and extremely heavy (more than 204.5 mm) rainfall, are poised to increase. This transformation will affect both the near and distant future.
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These shifts are partly driven by a temperature gradient strengthening and elevated atmospheric moisture content, supporting intensified rainfall extremes across the Plains.
Elaborating on this, Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, told Hindustan Times: “The capacity of air to hold moisture for a longer time has increased due to constant rise in land and sea temperatures. This, in turn, has influenced the intensity of monsoon rains.
“For instance, the Arabian Sea has warmed since January, infusing more moisture over northern and northwestern India. This continuous supply of moisture fed to the weather systems leads to increased rains, which also results in extreme weather events.”
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The Indo-Gangetic region, known for its immense agricultural significance and teeming population, will need to adapt to these alterations in rainfall to secure its future food and water resources. With the emergence of these findings, which have also been echoed by multiple studies and experts around the world, the challenge now lies in mitigating such intensifying impacts of climate change.
NOTE – This article was originally published in weather and can be viewed here
Tags: #climate, #climatechange, #climatecrisis, #climaterisk, #environment, #Gangeticplains, #getgreengetgrowing, #gngagritech, #greenstories, #rainfall, #rivers, #weather
